Book Demo
Login

What BFCM 2025 Teaches Us About Dominating E-commerce in 2026

Reading Time: 6 Min

BFCM 2025 - The Impact

Black Friday–Cyber Monday 2025 didn’t just break records – it rewrote the playbook for e-commerce brands in the U.S. and Canada.

  • U.S. online shoppers spent US$44.2 billion over Cyber Week, up 7.7% from last year.
  • Canada saw a 7% increase in Cyber Week online sales and a 4% bump in order volume, even as consumers battled inflation and higher tariffs.

But here’s the real story behind the big numbers: growth didn’t come from deeper discounts. It came from smarter use of data, AI-driven discovery, and a shift toward repeat customers and loyalty.

At AdBeacon, we’ve pulled together the most important findings from this year’s BFCM results -and what they mean for your 2026 strategy.

1. E-commerce Is Still Growing – But in a Very Different Way

The headline: e-commerce is not slowing down.

  • U.S. Black Friday online sales hit US$11.8B (+9.1% YoY)
  • Cyber Monday climbed to US$14.25B (+7.1% YoY)
  • Canadian Cyber Monday reached CA$668M (+3% YoY)

     

What’s changed is how that growth is happening:

  • Average discount depth actually fell in the U.S. (≈26% vs. 29% last year)
  • In Canada, average discounts increased, but average selling prices slipped slightly
  • Shoppers bought fewer items per basket, but at higher price points

     

In short: consumers are more selective, not necessarily more frugal. They’re willing to spend when the value is clear and the experience is seamless—especially on mobile, which now accounts for 57–63% of BFCM orders.

2. AI Is No Longer a Buzzword – It’s a Revenue Channel

One of the biggest shifts in 2025 was the explosive growth of AI-assisted discovery.

  • AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites grew +805% vs. Black Friday 2024
  • Globally, AI and LLM search helped drive around 20% of online orders during Cyber Week
  • In Canada, AI-referred traffic quadrupled, influencing 21% of online orders

AI is showing up everywhere: search, recommendations, automated messaging, and campaign optimization. Platforms like Klaviyo and Attentive reported:

  • A 71% revenue lift from AI-powered product recommendations
  • Brands using AI growing up to 2× faster than non-AI peers

For brands, this changes the job description. It’s no longer enough to “run campaigns.” You need to design decision systems: who sees what, when, and on which channel, and then measure the real revenue impact.

That’s where real-time attribution platforms like AdBeacon become essential. If AI is helping you drive more traffic, you need to know which AI-assisted journeys actually create profitable customers. We are currently working on this tracking update for 2026.

3. The Real Winners: Brands That Bet on Repeat Buyers

If BFCM 2019–2021 was all about acquisition, BFCM 2025 was about retention and LTV.

Key signals:

  • Same-site sales for Klaviyo clients grew 11%, driven mainly by +13.6% in repeat-buyer revenue
  • Larger brands generated the majority of their BFCM revenue from existing customers
  • Smaller brands still relied more heavily on new customers, often at higher acquisition costs

At the same time, paid media costs kept rising:

  • BFCM ad spend grew 28–35% year over year
  • Meta and Google CPMs and CPAs increased, with Google CPCs in some verticals exceeding US$70
  • TikTok and YouTube offered cheaper reach but lower conversion rates

The economics are clear…you can’t win in 2026 by overpaying for one-and-done customers. 

You win by:

  • Knowing your high-value segments
  • Serving them personalized offers
  • Using paid media to reactivate existing customers as much as to acquire new ones

AdBeacon’s customers increasingly use BFCM not just for “cheap acquisition” but as a stress test: Which channels, creatives, and audiences drive the most profitable repeat behavior over time?

4. Channel Mix: Think in Funnels, Not Silos

Another lesson from 2025: each channel has a different job.

  • TikTok & YouTube: Efficient reach and discovery with lower CPMs; powerful for seeding demand and capturing new audiences

     

  • Meta (Facebook/Instagram): Still the workhorse for mid-funnel and retargeting, especially in beauty, fitness, and fashion

     

  • Google & Bing: High-intent, bottom-funnel workhorses—but increasingly expensive in competitive verticals

     

  • Email & SMS: The margin protectors. CRM channels generated billions in attributed revenue with relatively low cost

     

The brands that outperformed weren’t necessarily spending less. They were spending with more intent:

  • Matching each platform to its best role in the customer journey
  • Coordinating creative and offers across channels
  • Measuring incremental lift, not just last-click ROAS

     

This is exactly the kind of cross-channel picture AdBeacon is built to provide – so you can see where each channel contributes and where it’s just taking credit.

5. Beyond Discounts: Smarter Offers, Better Experiences

A standout theme from 2025 is that margins mattered. Even as revenue rose, many brands reduced blanket discounting and leaned into smarter tactics:

  • Personalized offers based on past behavior and predicted LTV
  • Loyalty point bonuses and exclusive early access
  • Bundles and value-adds instead of ever-deeper percentage discounts
  • BNPL and mobile wallets to reduce friction at checkout

Local services, travel, and experiences also posted strong growth, showing that consumers aren’t just buying “things” – they’re buying flexibility and experiences.

For performance marketers, the takeaway is simple: your offer strategy is now as important as your media strategy. And you can’t optimize offers without granular revenue and margin data.

What This Means for Your 2026 BFCM Strategy

Based on the 2025 data, here’s where to focus:

  1. Double down on first-party data and retention.
     Build segments around real behavior and LTV. Use email, SMS, and loyalty to activate BFCM demand without eroding margins.

  2. Let AI work—but measure it ruthlessly.
     Adopt AI-powered recommendations and messaging, then use attribution to understand which AI-assisted paths actually drive profitable growth.

  3. Design your channel mix by funnel stage.
     Treat TikTok/YouTube as discovery, Meta as mid-funnel, and Google/Bing as high-intent. Measure each channel’s role in the journey—not just the last click.

  4. Optimize for mobile, end-to-end.
     With the majority of orders happening on mobile, every extra click or slow load costs you revenue.

  5. Use BFCM as a learning lab, not just a sales spike.
     The most sophisticated brands treat Cyber Week as a massive controlled experiment to inform 2026 creative, messaging, and budget allocation.

How AdBeacon Fits In...

As the 2025 BFCM data makes clear, the brands that will win in 2026 aren’t the ones spending the most – they’re the ones learning the fastest. 

At AdBeacon, we’re taking every insight from this year’s trends into account: the surge of AI-driven discovery, the rising cost of acquisition, the growing dominance of mobile, and the measurable shift toward retention-led growth. 

Our real-time attribution platform gives you the clarity to understand what’s actually driving profitable revenue across every channel, creative, and audience segment—so you can make smarter decisions, faster.

If you are ready for a new, simpler, and more profitable way to bring your 2026 to the next level, while lowering your tech stack cost – book your live AdBeacon demo and find out how your agency can qualify for our 90-day money back performance guarantee.